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Izvestia (Moscow) - March 23, 2005

We will have RUR24.5-25 to the dollar

Businessmen describe the nearest future for Russia.

It is necessary for Russian business that the Central Bank of Russia loosens its policies rather than continues supporting the ruble rate, as it has been doing recently. The issue was raised at the conference "Russian and Ukrainian Business under New Conditions: Risks and Prospects" at Gstaad in Switzerland. The majority of businessmen attending the event came to the conclusion that obscure macroeconomic indicators are even more of a devil for Russia than inflation.

Several dozen Russian and Ukrainian business people gathered in the Swiss Alps to discuss the future of business in the two states under new conditions. But the truth is that RBC's conference mainly tackled the problems of Russia. Ukraine seems not to be such a feature in these kinds of get-togethers and was poorly represented at the event.

"We need to make macro indicators predictable," deputy general director of RusAl-Management Alexander Livshits declared. "I mean inflation and the ruble rate. We have none." In his opinion, the biggest problem for the Russian economy lays in ruble strengthening. "A strong ruble will kill us," he assured everybody. "The economy will be loosing its industries one by one because they will be suppressed by import volumes." Livshits reiterated that he was voicing the opinion of the majority of big businesses and urged a dollar rate at 30 rubles. "We will take care of all the rest. We will make money and pay taxes. But if they keep inflation at 8-9 percent, the dollar rate will be 24.5-25 rubles by the end of the year."

Though no government officials attended the conference, businessmen kept addressing themselves to the authorities, predicting the future of the national economy was far from unclouded. "In 2007, we will face an extremely dangerous system crisis," head of the Globalization Studies Institute Mikhail Delyagin said, reflecting the position of most participants. He believed the economic development of Russia will be rather inertial in the next couple of years with foreign companies enjoying great advantages. "It's all because they have their own governments to protect them," Delyagin explained.

Odd as it sounds, foreigners felt more optimistic at the conference. Arnaud Lecrercq, head of eastern and central Europe activities at Credit Suisse Bank, tried to calm everybody telling stories from the past. "Five years ago, we were all saying in London that things would be bad in Russia. But we all know what happened and how successful Russia was over these past five years."

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