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Profil (Moscow) – April 5, 2004
In late March, the conference “Russia’s investment outlooks for a new presidential term" was held in Davos. The conference was hosted by RBC. The composition of the participants (over 200 representatives of large Russian and international companies, top officials, politicians and reporters), as well as the choice of the location, were designed to draw parallels with the “big” Davos – the annual International Economic Forum – and set an appropriate tone. Despite nice weather, beautiful ski runs and social entertainments, or, perhaps, thanks to all this, the conference was a success.
During the four days of the conference, about twenty round table meetings were held. Though debates often slipped into the discussion of the new Cabinet and presidential elections in Russia, from the beginning, there were several “hot” topics about the country’s economic prospects. Unlike Russian investors, their foreign colleagues were not concerned about the change of Russian Prime Minister. They were much more worried about Russian oligarchs selling off their businesses. According to Hans-Jork Rudloff, Chairman of the Executive Committee of Barclays Capital, the acquisition of foreign assets by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and the sale of his Russian assets is a worrying sign for foreign investors. At least, they will think whether it is worth buying assets their former owners were so eager to sell. At the same time, foreigners said their trust in the Russian government and the country’s economy was growing. According to Alexey Novikov, Analytical Director at Standard & Poor's, the creditworthiness of the Russian government rises more quickly than the creditworthiness of Russian issuers, says Alexei Novikov of Standard & Poor's Moscow office. The Russian government’s credit rating is “BB+”, while most of Russian issuers have a “B” rating, and banks have the lowest rating - “CCC+”. Banking issues have also been discussed, perhaps, due to the presence of Tatyana Paramonova, Senior Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, and Viktor Gerashchenko, the former Chairman of the Central Bank and current Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Property. Ms. Paramonova promised that all Russian banks would prepare their reports in accordance with International Accounting Standards. And Mr. Gerashchenko said Russia would face another default in 2007. According to him, GDP growth will slow down to 2.5-3.5 percent a year in 2005-2007, and the inflow of oil revenues will also reduce due to the strengthening of the ruble, which will lead to the overheating of financial markets and debt problems. All this could result in a new default, first on corporate debts and then on bank obligations. However, the representatives of the non-banking sphere were not particularly interested in this issue. They spoke about their companies’ IPOs. In this respect, a number of important statements were made at the conference. So, the companies Russian Textile, SkyLink and Tinkoff gave exact dates and the size of their planned IPOs. According to Oleg Tinkov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Tinkoff, the company plans an IPO of 35-40 percent of its authorized capital in 2005. The IPO will be held on the Russian market as Tinkoff’s revenues are not high enough for an IPO on Western stock markets. One of the conference members, Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods shareholder David Yakobashvili, did not speak about stock sales. He said his company was going to deal with major problems of humanity. According to Mr. Yakobashvili, Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods will fund the development of a drug to stop the spread of AIDS. He said the company was in talks to buy the technology and the necessary licenses. But he refused to give the name of the drug or its developers before the deal was completed. The representatives of the media business were also concerned about global problems. Alexey Venediktov, editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow radio, and Alexey Volin, President of Rodionov Publishing House, started a discussion about relations between business and the media. Mr. Venediktov warned businessmen about the dangers of information technologies. At this stage, he said, it was impossible to hide information. Mr. Venediktov called for the joint development of new, mutually advantageous and correct principles of relations between business and the media. For his part, Mr. Volin said that today, when corporate reputation was a key factor of capitalization, the media became a real factor of business development. Both of them expressed readiness to prove their words in practice to any Russian company. However, there were no volunteers to check the possibilities of the media regarding their businesses, and the conference members went to a Chivas life party, organized by Pernaud Richard. It should be noted that joint meals like breakfasts, coffee breaks, lunches, dinners and suppers at Davos are no less important, or perhaps, even more important, than round table meetings and conferences. And many long-time participants even think the Davos conference is just a good opportunity to meet in an informal atmosphere. So, in the evenings, conference members worked as hard as in the daytime. They were entertained by RBC General Director Yury Rovensky and sponsors – producers of Ararat cognac and suppliers of Chivas Regal whisky. On the first evening, the guests were invited to Extrablat restaurant. And two days later, they went to a Chivas Regal party at Cabana Club. Russian businessmen can relax as well as they can do business. Tell a joke – by all means. “Light up" to vigorous music, like regular disco goers – why not? Or drink (moderately, of course) and dance a Georgian lezginka or a Russian squatting dance. Not only sponsors’ drinks were in demand but also Moet&Chandon champaign, French and German whisky and even Russian vodka. But all this was consumed within reasonable limits... On the last day of the conference, those who did not see the place before, were offered a tour around, so that they had something to boast about after they returned home. After all, Davos is not just a legendary congress center, restaurants and night clubs, but it also has the most picturesque Alps and lakes.
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