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Of all the CIS nations that have been through a recession, Russia remains the only country where the crisis has not triggered any structural economic reform, a report on the crisis and post-crisis opportunities in the CIS prepared by Sberbank’s macroeconomic research center revealed. The Reserve Fund helped Russia shoulder its budget deficit and avoid unpopular measures – something Russia lacks political will for, since as it turns out, higher store is set by social stability than modernization.

The European countries of the CIS were the hardest hit by the crisis, the report said. Backed by their natural riches and closed economies, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were even able to sustain GDP growth above 5 percent last year, followed closely by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with 4 percent. Meanwhile, statistics have been far less upbeat for the commonwealth’s European part: in Belarus, economic growth slowed down to nearly zero, while in Russia and Moldova GDP took a dive of 7.9 and 9 percent, respectively. Armenia and Ukraine were the worst performers, however, with GDP plunging 14.4 and 15 percent, respectively.

On the upside, however, the crisis has forced (or will force in the near future) the nations to adopt structural economic reforms, the report’s authors maintain. For one, almost all of these nations appealed to the International Monetary Fund, which invariably sets a number of tough conditions. Furthermore, even when using alternative ways to replenish their budgets, they still cannot do without structural changes. Loans from the EU and the World Bank tend to be directly linked to IMF adjustment programs, while Eurobond issues call for higher state finance transparency.

Ukraine, which reached an agreement on a credit facility worth $14.9bn for a term of 2.5 years with the IMF in early July, is moving towards the goal the fastest. “The IMF’s primary requirement is to cut budget deficit to 6.5 percent of GDP, including the shortage generated by Naftogaz of Ukraine (1 percent of GDP),” chief economist at the Kiev-based Dragon Capital Yelena Belan said. “Next year, the showing is to be cut to 3.5 percent, with zero deficit coming from Naftogaz,” she continued. Other IMF requirements include tax, social benefits and fuel and energy reforms, as well as a rise in banking capitalization and more independence for the Central Bank.

For Belarus, the IMF program ended this past March – and to the IMF’s discontent with the country’s compliance with its obligations. Yet, the next mission will come to Minsk in October, and as Sberbank analysts note, financial woes may finally compel Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to risk a few changes, including privatizations.

As the report laments, Russia remained an exception from the ranks of “reformers.” The safety cushion it had built up has taken the edge off of budget financing. The Finance Ministry’s decisions to attract loans domestically and lower administrative barriers will do nothing to fundamentally improve the business climate. As the authors of the report concluded, “Maintaining social stability has clearly prevailed over economic modernization.”

“The situation is akin to a severely ill patient who, while hooked up to an IV, promises that once he is better he will quit drinking and smoking and get involved in sports, but then forgets his promises as soon as he recovers,” professor of economics Nikita Kluchevsky said ironically. “When oil plummeted to $36 a barrel in 2008, everyone started saying that our economy needed reshaping. Suddenly, oil prices started to grow, and the stock market followed suit. Naturally enough, everyone then completely forgot their intentions to switch to a healthy lifestyle,” he added.

Analytical department of RIA RosBusinessConsulting