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Parallels drawn between Yushchenko and Saakashvili
Moscow can use Ukraine’s political situation to its advantage
Ukraine’s ruling Orange coalition has collapsed, leaving President Viktor Yushchenko in isolation. His rivals are competing in demonstrating their loyalty to Moscow, whose new foreign policy makes Ukrainian politicians rethink their tactics and possibly strategy as well. Experts recommend that the Kremlin should use this opportunity and, without betting on any candidate, bind Ukraine’s political forces with obligations which will be difficult to lift in the future.
The conflict was triggered by events in the Caucasus. President Viktor Yushchenko told Prime Minister Julia Timoshenko to condemn Russia, but she, fearing to lose her supporters in western Ukraine, stopped short of slamming Moscow, only expressing support for Georgia’s territorial integrity. Viktor Yanukovich, Yushchenko’s rival and leader of the Party of Regions, went even further, offering to follow Russia’s example and recognize Georgia’s breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Yushchenko’s relentlessness only served to push Timoshenko into Yanukovich’s arms, and on Tuesday her block and Yanukovich’s party pushed through the bills limiting the President’s powers. In protest, Yushchenko’s supporters from the Our Ukraine party split from Timoshenko, breaking the ruling Orange coalition.
On Wednesday evening Yushchenko threatened to dissolve national parliament if a new coalition is not formed within 30 days. De facto, however, such coalition has already been formed by Timoshenko’s bloc, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine. Together, they have enough voices to overcome the President’s veto, pass amendments to the Constitution and even to impeach Yushchenko. For his part, the Ukrainian President has no lawful means to fight his opponents. Perhaps, it is for his reason that his office accuses Timoshenko of lobbying for Moscow’s interests in exchange for the Kremlin’s support in the Ukrainian presidential elections. Some even expect the arrest of the rebellious Prime Minister, but political analyst Andrei Yermolayev does not believe that Yushchenko will resort to this measure, for fear of public protests. A more likely scenario is the dissolution of parliament and early parliamentary elections, agrees another political analyst, Vladimir Fesenko.
For Moscow, Yushchenko’s isolation is an advantage. According to Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute of Political Analysis, not only Timoshenko and Yushchenko are competing in terms of constructiveness and loyalty to Moscow, but other Ukrainian politicians as well. In this situation, Moscow should not pick out a single candidate, but it should start negotiations with a wide range of Ukraine’s political forces. “During such talks, Russia should discuss guarantees and insist that politicians express their opinions and positions in public as often as possible, so that they could not go back on them in the future,” Fesenko said.
Ukraine’s unstable government makes it easier for Russia to negotiate on trade and gas issues, Yermolayev adds. The situation in Ukraine is in many respects similar to that in Georgia, believes Alexei Mukhin, the head of the Moscow-based Center for Political Information. He drew parallels between Timoshenko and Nino Burdzhanadze, the former Chairperson of the Georgian parliament who had left President Saakashvili’s team hoping to become President herself. Ukraine is ready to transform from a unitary state into a confederation, and all we have to do is just not to interfere with this process, according to Mukhin. In any case, he does not recommend that the Kremlin bet on Yanukovich.
Analytical department of RIA RosBusinessConsulting
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