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Medvedev’s baptism by fire
The new Russian President’s first 100 days in power examined

During the first one hundred days of his rule, Dmitry Medvedev was given the opportunity to prove himself in both foreign and domestic policy. On the one hand, the decision to carry out a peacekeeping operation in the zone of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict has shown that Russia will continue striving to regain its past influence in the global arena under the new President. On the other hand, the anti-corruption program he launched, his warning to stop ‘terrorizing’ business, and his readiness to discuss the release of Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed an opinion about the new President as a more liberal successor of Vladimir Putin, at work fulfilling his campaign promises. Yet again, experts say he did not have to expend energy on building the vertical of power, which was at the center of attention of his predecessor for most of his first term in power. For this, Medvedev has had to share part of his power with the Prime Minister.

Dmitry Medvedev was fortunate enough to have already had the opportunity to demonstrate himself in some the key areas, as a fighter against inflation and corruption, the President of a ‘safe haven’ amid a storming financial sea, a defender of business, and a reformer of the judicial and administrative system. He has succeeded in passing the main competency exam each ruler faces – a military conflict. “Dmitry Medvedev has won a war. This is the most definitive result of his first 100 days in power in terms of foreign policy,” member of Russia’s Public Chamber Vyacheslav Nikonov believes.

Assumptions have been made that it was not by chance that Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili sparked the conflict on the night of August 7-8. “Putin is far away, at the Beijing Olympics; Medvedev is on holiday, and besides, he does not have experience with the military – meaning that one can launch an attack and win time,” says Vice President of the Center for Political Technologies Alexei Makarkin. “It was assumed that our President would start calling on the UN and get entangled in the procedures of the international protocol, but he acted firmly and pragmatically and gave the order to strike back. Then he halted the operation at the proper time, which is not any less difficult, as there was a temptation to go the distance, like in Soviet times, and seize the Georgian capital.”

Western leaders are now only feeling out the Russian President. They are glad to meet him: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already met with Dmitry Medvedev three times, and is about to meet with him again in Sochi to discuss the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. “Dmitry Medvedev’s big advantage is that he can speak with western leaders in a style that they are accustomed to, they listen and seldom make objections, and this is what sets him apart from Vladimir Putin,” Makarkin says. As during the first few months of Vladimir Putin’s rule, many western leaders probably want an answer for the question: who is Dmitry Medvedev? Experts point out the West has not yet decided on what to think of the new Russian President. Meanwhile, politicians in the US have a strong conviction that the Russian President lacks independence, believing that Vladimir Putin is still holding the reins in Russia.

Medvedev has not yet managed to make visible achievements in driving the country’s economy to new heights. However, it is already clear that he is a President who started fulfilling his campaign promises right from the start. Dmitry Medvedev’s ‘baptism by fire’ in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict can now be successfully converted domestically. “Just as he has managed to punish the aggressors, he will also be able to overcome corruption in the military and courts,” Makarkin believes. He noted that Medvedev’s leadership style is not as emotional as Putin’s, but he defends Russia’s interests in the global arena and promotes relief measures for small and medium-sized businesses just about as vigorously.

Comparing the first 100 days of President Putin and President Medvedev, it becomes clear that Russia is now living in a different era. Putin started out by building a vertical of power, fighting regional elite’s separatist ambitions, leading the second ‘counter-terrorism operation’ in Chechnya and removing oligarchs with political ambitions. “Medvedev inherited an up-and-running mechanism of power, and he focused on fine-tuning the system of state governance, and was even ready to release Mikhail Khodorkovsky,” said Alexei Makarkin.

However, one good turn deserves another, and Medvedev must now swallow the fact that, under Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the role of the cabinet in the system of power relations has increased greatly, and as opportunity offers, the government could curb the implementation of the Kremlin’s initiatives. Experts have already taken note of the ‘behind the scenes’ polemic of Vladimir Putin, offering to send a doctor to check on Mechel CEO Igor Zyuzin, and Dmitry Medvedev, who a few days later warned against ‘terrorizing’ business. Still, political analysts believe that the current Medvedev-Putin power tandem has not given rise to concerns regarding the stability and effectiveness of the work of the executive branch in its new configuration.

Analytical department of RIA RosBusinessConsulting

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